Dated, falsifiable bets and the observational campaigns built to decide them — each with a kill condition fixed before the data.
Working note
A Falsification Sheet for the Finite-QEC Substrate Programme
A deliberately adversarial map of the simplest empirical ways to kill, demote, or constrain the framework. Near-term kill switches: a confirmed primordial tensor signal at r ≳ 10⁻³; a dark-energy reconstruction excluding w(a) = −1 + a/28; a scalar tilt excluding n_s = 27/28; a secular drift in G or α; a neutron EDM far above 10⁻³¹ e·cm with no extra CP source; or dark matter shown to be a freely streaming particle gas. Several tests are branch-level (the 17.7 keV sterile neutrino, the R4/MOND line law, the K04 debris walls) and would retire a branch without collapsing the matter sector.
Prediction note
A Rational Target for Dynamical Dark Energy: w₀ = −27/28, wₐ = −1/28
A registered dark-energy branch, preserved as a public record of a prediction that has since been retired under its own rules — the discipline of pre-registration requires failed predictions to stay visible. In the Chevallier–Polarski–Linder parameterisation w(a) = w₀ + wₐ(1−a) the framework had fixed a single rational point, w₀ = −27/28 ≈ −0.964, wₐ = −1/28 (equivalently the one-line law w(a) = −1 + a/28): a mild, non-phantom thawing-like departure from ΛCDM produced not by a fit to DESI, Euclid, Planck, or supernova data but by the same 28-channel service clock that sets the scalar tilt n_s = 27/28. The dated outcome is now recorded: this specific late-time branch is internally killed by the pinned-H₀/acoustic-clock consistency test and kept only as a frozen reopen condition — the framework no longer treats the CPL point as its active dark-energy prediction unless the explicitly stated reopen condition is met. Late-time surveys may still test the frozen point, but the branch failed internally before the external posterior became decisive: an honest negative, retained rather than refitted.
Prediction note
A Primordial-Tensor Null from Boundary Printing: Pre-registering r_linear = 0
A short, dated prediction from the boundary-printing branch: a primordial-tensor null, r_linear = 0. In this branch inflation is not a smooth de Sitter stretching of an existing metric but the printing of fresh boundary cells by a scalar counting process — and a scalar source has no transverse-traceless part, so the spin-2 projector annihilates it at linear order. The often-quoted r ∼ 2×10⁻⁹ is therefore not a primordial squeezed-tensor amplitude but only the expected second-order scalar-induced floor, r_induced = C_SIGW·A_s ≃ 2.13×10⁻⁹ (with C_SIGW an external radiation-transfer coefficient, not a fitted substrate parameter), far below any near-term reach. The prediction-grade near-term claim is a null: no primordial B-mode detection at r ≳ 10⁻³ after dust, lensing and systematics — a clean kill switch, since a robust signal at that level (LiteBIRD, CMB-S4) would force a squeezed-graviton vacuum and refute the boundary-printer branch. The note also pre-commits the post-hoc rules: the denominator, the one-bit printer premise, and A_s = (3/4)α₀⁴ cannot be retuned after the data arrive, and a hidden squeezed-graviton vacuum would be a new branch, not this one.
Prediction note
A Sterile-Neutrino X-ray Target from the Finite-QEC Dark Sector: m_nuR = 17.68 keV, E_gamma = 8.84 keV
A staged, pre-registered X-ray target for the framework's sterile-neutrino dark-sector state, updated with a flux sharpness audit (6 July 2026) that grades its own claims. The hard line-position claim: the passive ν_R state in the record code has mass m_νR = α₀²Λ_QCD = 17.68 keV, so its radiative decay ν_R → ν_L γ gives a photon line at E_γ = 8.84 keV — distinct from the much-discussed 3.5 keV line, which would instead need a ~7 keV sterile mass. The current dark-sector ledger adds a conditional abundance, n_νR/n_γ = α₀/208, giving Ω_νR h² = 0.02418 — one fifth of the paired zero-mode/sterile dark budget Ω_dark h² = 0.12089 — making line position and relic density sharp conditional targets. The flux tier is now explicitly downgraded: the finite register fixes the unique neutral ν_R → ν_L repair edge and its generation-singlet coefficient to one, leaving a single Schur-sector scalar κ = v_R4·K_B; the registered one-denominator branch sets κ = 1, giving sin²(2θ) = 2.1×10⁻¹⁴ and Γ ≈ 4.9×10⁻³³ s⁻¹ — a deliberately faint line below near-term XRISM-class sensitivity and probably below Athena-class reach — but the new sharpness audit shows current canon does not derive κ = 1: any positive κ can be realised by a different local Schur spectral moment while preserving the finite-edge and abundance facts, and the flux scales as κ². The robust near-term content is therefore the line position, the relic-density target, and the prediction of no bright line at this energy in the κ = 1 branch: a much brighter 8.84 keV dark line would refute that branch, while a sufficiently deep non-detection bounds κ without by itself refuting the mass target. The limiting input on the line energy remains the Λ_QCD definition/scheme, so the honest target stays a few-percent window around 8.84 keV.
Prediction note
A Registered Null Prediction for K04 Defects: Pinned Fossils, Not Mobile Halo Dark Matter
A registered negative prediction sharpening the dark-sector split: the K04 crystallisation-defect sector is a substrate-pinned fossil — a gauge-blind, durable relic of imperfect crystallisation — not the mobile collisionless halo. The prediction now rests on two independent obstructions. Topological: the protected K04 class is not a finite point-particle carrier — the conserved object is the ℤ₂ homology class of C ⊕ C_crystal, so finite misbonds are healable while protected relics are extended winding strings or walls. Dynamical: the canonical plaquette dynamics finds no zero-energy advancing move for those protected relics — the cheapest local move has positive cost, and no fixed-excess transport path was found below 48w₆ in the finite best-first search horizon — so every advancing path crosses a positive Peierls barrier, exactly like a dislocation pinned in a crystal. Two independent estimates make the pinning overwhelming: the astrophysical drive per one-cell advance at a MOND/galaxy-scale acceleration is R_drive = a(2a₀)/c² ≈ 1.6×10⁻⁴² (forty-plus orders of magnitude too small to depin), and thermal/radiative creep at today's CMB temperature is dead (3w₆/T₀ ≳ 2×10¹¹). The observational readings are all nulls: K04 defects should not comove with galaxies, form Bullet-cluster-like separated mass peaks, generate a terrestrial defect wind in clock/magnetometer networks, or behave as cold-dark-matter subhalos — the mobile halo burden transfers to the zero-mode/R4/ν_R branch. Registered as a null prediction with a precise repair price: future uses of K04 as mobile halo dark matter are internally falsified unless new canon first supplies either a finite protected K04 carrier or an exact zero-barrier wall-translation primitive with a non-vacuum gravitating shadow. A substrate-pinned, probably subdominant fossil fraction remains allowed.
Prediction note
A Pre-Registered Neutrino-Sector Prediction from the Finite-QEC Substrate: Normal Ordering at the Oscillation Floor, No Dirac Phase, and an Invisible m_ββ
The full pre-registration behind the leptonic-CP addendum below: the framework's complete neutrino-sector bet, in the same style as its five earlier registered predictions, fixed by substrate constants plus one declared experimental scale (Δm²₃₁ = 2.515×10⁻³ eV²). Four claims. (i) No intrinsic leptonic Dirac CP violation — the PMNS lift is the real single-polar frame transport, so J_ℓ = 0 exactly and δ_CP ∈ {0, π}; a sector-selection theorem in the same engine that produces the quark J ≠ 0 shows why: CP transport rides colour intermediates, and the lepton register is colourless. (ii) Normal ordering at the oscillation floor — a Koide neutrino circulant gives m = (0.79, 8.72, 50.16) meV, Σm_ν = 59.7 meV, just 0.7 meV above the absolute normal-ordering minimum. (iii) CP lives in the Majorana sector — a Hermitian orientation pointer diagonal in the mass basis feeds leptogenesis and 0νββ, never long-baseline δ_CP. (iv) An invisible m_ββ = 1.76 or 3.07 meV (envelope < 4.2 meV), below the LEGEND-1000/nEXO discovery band, so the framework predicts a null at next-generation 0νββ (m_β = 9.06 meV). At registration the CP-conserving point sits 0.16σ from the NuFit 6.0 normal-ordering best fit (δ_CP = 177° ± 20), while the leading-order mixing angles carry openly declared 2.2–3.7σ strains that are not the registered surfaces. Five original kill surfaces were frozen; a later outcome addendum supersedes the joint dark-energy clause — the registered law w(a) = −1 + a/28 has since been killed internally, so that clause is now historical rather than an active rescue of the mass-sum prediction, and the lab-facing predictions (normal ordering, Dirac-CP null, m_β, 0νββ null) are unchanged. Grade: conditional, not locked — three named assumptions are carried explicitly.
Prediction note
Leptonic CP is Majorana-only: A Registered Prediction Addendum
A dated prediction addendum to the neutrino-sector record (3 July and 6 July 2026), following the full pre-registration above: the numerical targets match the 1 July pre-registration, with the experimental content made explicit and a machine-readable JSON registration attached. The 6 July addendum upgrades the reason for the Dirac-CP null — it is not merely a real-PMNS assumption but follows from the same walk engine that makes the quark sector complex: rephasing-invariant Dirac CP needs transport through the colour register, and the colourless lepton register carries only rephasing-trivial phase. So leptonic CP is Majorana-only: the long-baseline Dirac phase is conserved (J_ℓ = 0, δ_CP ∈ {0, π}) while the CP-bearing object is a monitored R1/Majorana recovery-orientation record, showing up in neutrinoless double-beta decay and leptogenesis, not in oscillations. The same branch gives normal ordering with a fixed spectrum (m₁, m₂, m₃) = (0.79, 8.72, 50.16) meV and Σm_ν = 59.7 meV, and m_ββ = 1.76 meV (σ = +) or 3.07 meV (σ = −) — far below current and next-generation 0νββ reach. The branch is killed by high-significance intrinsic leptonic Dirac CP in normal ordering, an established inverted ordering, Σm_ν far above 60 meV, or a standard light-Majorana 0νββ interpretation with m_ββ ≳ 10 meV. Intentionally falsifiable: a nonzero Dirac phase would require a new complex PMNS response operator.
Prediction note
Newton's Constant from the Proton Mass: A Locked Zero-Parameter Prediction
The fifth registered prediction and the sharpest single number in the programme: Newton's constant computed from the proton mass through a chain containing no fitted parameters — G = ħc/M_P² with M_P² = 990α₀³Λ²/r₆ and Λ = m_p/(2√2(1+3α₀²)) — where α₀ = 1/137 is an exact alphabet count, 990 = 2·9·55 an exact combinatoric, r₆ = (21q)³²/21 a computed queue current, and (1+3α₀²) the junction-billing correction: the three colour-singlet-forced legs of the baryon's Y-junction each fire a two-endpoint service coincidence per record tick and re-commit the record's own ledger entry. The result, G_pred = 6.674311×10⁻¹¹ m³ kg⁻¹ s⁻², lands at +0.07σ_G of CODATA-2022 — within a tenth of the experimental standard uncertainty (22 ppm), with the framework side exact at the 10⁻⁹ level, so the entire quoted uncertainty is experimental. The note pre-registers the derivation-history disclosure (the correction class was registered, with a two-sided lock/kill rule, before its landing was computed; the integer, exponent, and sign were forced with no freedom to fit), the frozen-integer no-fit rules, and the falsification protocol: a next-generation big-G measurement at ≲15 ppm that excludes G_pred kills the chain outright, and a companion discriminator rides alongside as an independent check — the single-string meson correction m_ρ → m_ρ(1+α₀²).
Prediction note
Finite-Information QCD: A Pre-Registered Fingerprint Protocol at a Derived Lattice Spacing
In the substrate programme the lattice spacing is not a regulator: it is a derived physical constant, a₀ = 0.59494 fm (equivalently ħc/a₀ = 331.7 MeV), with no continuum limit to take — so deviations from continuum-extrapolated QCD at this spacing are predictions, not artifacts. That claim invites unlimited after-the-fact fitting unless the deviation list is frozen first, and this document freezes it. It registers: the closed four-item fingerprint list (an orientation-averaged ℓ = 4 potential scalar; the three-quark junction geometry; glueball mass ratios at a₀; the roughening/Lüscher crossover), each with estimator, comparator, and kill rule; the paired-lattice differential protocol that separates geometry fingerprints from generic finite-spacing effects; the gate results that scoped the list — the isotropy gate (domain averaging kills all orientation-vector signals; Hughes–Drever-class bounds are cleared by construction, with the surviving sensitivity c ≲ 4×10⁻¹⁸ registered as a standing falsifier) and the dispersion/umklapp audit (free kinematics is record-grade exact; the umklapp channel dies four enumerated ways; the free-kinematics fingerprint class is empty and retired); and a two-stage freeze discipline — the hypothesis space and decision rules are fixed before any production compute, and a versioned addendum will fix measured coefficients before the physical-point confrontation. Every outcome is informative: a null across all four fingerprints is a universality result that hardens the programme's QCD-reproduction claim, while the glueball clause gives the physical-point claim a genuine external kill.
Observational programme
Persistence or Turnover? A galaxy–galaxy lensing programme for the excess-acceleration fork in KiDS-1000. I. Pipeline, frame forensics, and instrument validation
The opening paper of an observational programme aimed at deciding, with public lensing data, one of the dark sector's sharpest forks. Around an isolated galaxy the excess radial acceleration g_ex = g_obs − g_bar discriminates two pictures that agree where data has historically been plentiful and separate in the deep, low-acceleration tail: in the metric-reading picture the excess continues as a square root, g_ex = √(a₀ g_bar), at all radii — no scale, no edge — while in the standard halo picture the excess tracks a finite reservoir, saturating beyond the truncated halo's edge and falling away toward GM_tot/R², leaving only the two-halo term. Stacked weak lensing measures g_ex directly, and mock-catalogue closure shows the deep window is a persistence-versus-vanishing discrimination worth tens of standard deviations at modern survey power. Phase A, reported here on public KiDS-1000 data: a production ΔΣ pipeline (tomographic Σ_crit from the released n(z) with the foreground dead fraction included, boost and random-point corrections, 131-region jackknife covariance); release-verified survey parameters; a complete instrument-forensics account in which four null science runs were traced — via the frame-invariance of cosmic shear versus the frame-dependence of galaxy–galaxy lensing, and an eight-variant frame adjudication on a cluster-scale control resolving at 16.6σ/18.0σ — to a single parity convention (e₂ → −e₂) in the tangent frame; three failed isolation criteria, rejected and documented, including a general pathology of photometric-redshift isolation cuts; a validated instrument — the pre-registered 5σ detection bar, never adjusted, cleared at 14.6σ on a declared 50,000-lens subsample; and a first, deliberately modest structure test in which the square-root continuation fits the measured profile well (χ² = 15.3/9) and the halo alternative, fitted with a Phase-A two-halo surrogate, achieves statistical parity (Δχ² = +1.2, ΔAIC = −0.8) only by pinning at its mass-grid edge — a flagged, unresolved configuration. The registered acceptance protocol for the decision — eight points spanning ≥ 1.25 decades at ≤ 0.10 dex at 5σ, with a persistence statistic, fixed before the data and never adjusted — is restated and remains untouched. The fork is not decided here; the instrument that can decide it now exists and is validated.
Observational programme
Persistence or Turnover? A galaxy–galaxy lensing programme for the excess-acceleration fork in KiDS-1000. II. Certified spectroscopic isolation, a four-fold reproduced deep-tail slope, and a frozen decision protocol for DESI DR2
Paper I validated the lensing instrument; this second paper supplies the missing ingredient — certifiable isolation — and takes the campaign to the edge of decision. A six-entry isolation-criterion ledger documents four instructive failures: photometric-redshift isolation fails three ways (including a general pathology in which near-empty photo-z neighbourhoods preferentially select catalogue label errors — objects that do not lens because they are not what their labels claim), and the classic 0.1 M* spectroscopic criterion is shown by an in-data completeness audit to be uncertifiable at joint GAMA×KiDS-Bright depth. Two certifiable criteria survive — GAMA G3C group-catalogue non-membership (mock-calibrated) and a per-lens strictest-certifiable-threshold "peer-or-better" cut — and their registered union across GAMA DR4 and DESI DR1 BGS spectroscopy (1,051 deg² of the KiDS-North strip) yields 39,015 certified-isolated lenses, with the environment purge verified in the data (outer stack amplitude 2.07 → 0.45–1.11 M⊙ pc⁻²; isolated-RAR offset +0.48 → +0.23 dex). Against this sample the pre-registered acceptance bar — eight points spanning ≥ 1.25 decades at ≤ 0.10 dex — misses by one point at five thousandths of a dex (seven qualify; the eighth carries 0.105), precisely as the campaign's pre-data power forecast (N_req ≈ 4.5×10⁴), now confirmed by four independent samples, said it would. The evidence meanwhile cuts cleanly both ways: a pre-registered supplementary likelihood leg measures the deep-tail slope at 0.660 ± 0.071 — excluding the halo point-mass turnover at 4.8σ and sitting marginally steep of the metric 1/2 at +2.3σ, the fourth independent reproduction of a ≃ 0.6 slope — while at union precision the metric branch's zero-freedom inner profile is disfavoured in full-profile goodness-of-fit (Δχ² = −38.6 in the halo branch's favour). The decision protocol is frozen verbatim, its mechanical execution on DESI DR2 pre-announced as a catalogue-swap in a committed pipeline, and the series' verdict section left deliberately vacant. All three possible outcomes are argued to be individually interesting — the third, a persistent slope near 0.6 that is neither 1/2 nor 1, perhaps most of all.